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Which countries will be affected by the Estlink 2 outage by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Only Finland • 25%
Only Estonia • 25%
Both Finland and Estonia • 25%
Neither • 25%
Reports from Fingrid, Estonian transmission system operator, or relevant government agencies
Story
Finland Investigates Estlink 2 Power Link Outage on December 25, 2024; Capacity Dropped from 1,016 MW to 358 MW
Dec 25, 2024, 01:25 PM
The undersea power link Estlink 2, which connects Finland and Estonia, experienced a significant outage on December 25, 2024. The disruption occurred around 12:30 PM local time, with Fingrid, the Finnish transmission system operator, confirming that the link's capacity dropped from 1,016 megawatts (MW) to just 358 MW. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stated that authorities are actively investigating the cause of the outage, and while they are looking into various possibilities, including potential vandalism, the interruption is not expected to impact electricity supply for Finnish consumers. The investigation continues as officials work to determine the exact circumstances surrounding the outage.
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Finland, Estonia, and NATO • 25%
Finland, Estonia, and Russia • 25%
Finland and Estonia only • 25%
Other international coalition • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Minor increase (<5%) • 25%
Significant increase (>10%) • 25%
Moderate increase (5-10%) • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Intentional sabotage • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
No external assistance • 25%
Estonia • 25%
Other EU country • 25%
Non-EU country • 25%
Resolved with conviction • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Resolved without conviction • 25%
Closed without resolution • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%