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Market
How will the Estlink 2 outage impact energy prices in Finland and Estonia by March 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant increase (>10%) • 25%
Moderate increase (5-10%) • 25%
Minor increase (<5%) • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Market reports or official energy price indices
Story
Finland Probes Estlink 2 Cable Outage; Sabotage Not Ruled Out
Dec 25, 2024, 04:29 PM
Authorities in Finland are investigating an outage of the Estlink 2 undersea power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, which occurred on December 25 at 10:26 AM GMT. The disruption led to a reduction in transmission capacity from 1,016 MW to 358 MW between the two countries. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo confirmed that the cause of the outage is under investigation, and sabotage cannot be ruled out, according to the Finnish power grid operator Fingrid. Estonian grid operator Elering also stated that they are not excluding any possible causes. Similar incidents have previously occurred with undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, including damage to the Balticconnector pipeline.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Only Finland • 25%
Only Estonia • 25%
Both Finland and Estonia • 25%
Neither • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Intentional sabotage • 25%
Resolved without conviction • 25%
Resolved with conviction • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Closed without resolution • 25%
Replacement • 25%
Temporary Fix • 25%
Other • 25%
Repair • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
No conclusive cause • 25%
Vessel involvement confirmed • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Technical fault confirmed • 25%
Fully resolved • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Not resolved • 25%
Partially resolved • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Other • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%