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What will be the outcome of the EstLink 2 cable damage investigation by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolved with conviction • 25%
Resolved without conviction • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Closed without resolution • 25%
Final report from Estonian authorities or international bodies
Story
Estonia Deploys Navy to Protect EstLink 1 Cable After Suspected Sabotage; Seeks NATO, Finland Aid
Dec 27, 2024, 10:09 AM
Estonia has launched a naval operation today to protect the 105-kilometer EstLink 1 undersea power cable, deploying Navy patrol boats to guard the critical energy link with Finland in the Baltic Sea. The operation follows damage to the EstLink 2 cable on Christmas Day, which authorities suspect was caused by sabotage involving the anchor of an oil tanker, the Eagle S. Estonian Defense Forces are working to secure undersea infrastructure, with NATO and Finnish forces preparing a response. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna announced the deployment and emphasized the importance of safeguarding energy connections in the region. Estonia has requested assistance from Finland and NATO to bolster security.
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Inconclusive • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Intentional sabotage • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
No conclusive cause • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Technical fault confirmed • 25%
Vessel involvement confirmed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Confirmed accidental damage • 25%
Confirmed sabotage by foreign entity • 25%
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Unknown/Other • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Accidental Damage • 25%
Natural Causes • 25%
Cause undetermined • 25%
Sabotage by another entity • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Anchor damage by 'Eagle S' • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
State actor • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Accidental cause • 25%
Russia found responsible • 25%
Cause remains undetermined • 25%
Non-state actor found responsible • 25%
Another state actor found responsible • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Sabotage • 25%