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What will be the status of the US-South Korea military alliance by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened alliance • 25%
Weakened alliance • 25%
No change • 25%
Alliance dissolved • 25%
Official announcements from the US Department of Defense or South Korean Ministry of National Defense, reported by major news outlets
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North Korea's Kim Jong Un Declares South Korea Hostile, Warns of Physical Force and End of 'Evil' Relationship
Oct 17, 2024, 11:32 PM
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has declared South Korea a hostile foreign country for the first time in history. During his visit to the 2nd Corps Command of the Korean People's Army, Kim emphasized the need for a stronger North Korean nuclear deterrent, citing the changed nature of the South Korea-US alliance and different military maneuvers. Kim warned that North Korea would not hesitate to use physical force if its sovereignty is violated. State media KCNA reported that Kim, alongside high-ranking military personnel, was seen at a command post reviewing a map labelled 'Seoul'. Kim also stated that the road closure signifies the end of an 'evil' relationship with Seoul and described South Koreans as ‘legit enemy’.
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Decrease • 25%
No change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
U.S. Forces Japan upgraded to Joint Force Headquarters • 25%
New joint command structure established • 25%
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Other • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Strengthened NATO ties • 25%
New military alliances • 25%
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Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
New diplomatic initiatives • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened alliances with Russia • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
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Relationship strengthens • 25%
Relationship weakens • 25%
Relationship remains unchanged • 25%
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Increase in troops • 25%
Decrease in troops • 25%
No change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
North Korea-Russia alliance • 25%
South Korea strengthens US ties • 25%
New regional alliance forms • 25%
No significant changes • 25%