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What will be the status of the conflict near the Kursk region by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Escalated • 25%
De-escalated • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Resolved • 25%
Verified news sources and official statements from Russian and Ukrainian authorities
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Russia Orders Evacuation of Rylsk and Khomutovsky Districts Near Ukraine Border
Sep 16, 2024, 12:41 PM
Russian authorities have announced a mandatory evacuation of residents from the Rylsk and Khomutovsky districts in the Kursk region, which are within a 15-kilometer zone from the Ukrainian border. Acting Governor Alexey Smirnov stated that the evacuation is necessary to ensure the safety of civilians amid a potential encirclement threat to 8,000 Russian troops in the region. The newly-created evacuation zone covers 1,100 square kilometers. The evacuation follows a cross-border incursion by Ukrainian forces, which has prompted Russia to evacuate multiple settlements in the area almost six weeks after Ukraine launched its surprise incursion.
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Russian forces maintain control • 25%
Ukrainian forces penetrate and hold territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine controls Kursk • 25%
Russia controls Kursk • 25%
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Russian Victory • 25%
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Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
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Ukraine retains control • 25%
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Ukrainian forces hold captured territory • 25%
Russian forces recapture all territory • 25%
Stalemate with contested areas • 25%
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Ukraine controls Kursk • 25%
Russia retains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ceasefire in Kursk region • 25%
Russian forces maintain control • 25%
Significant territorial gains by opposition forces • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
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Russia Victory • 25%
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Ukraine captures and holds territory • 25%
Russia repels Ukrainian offensive • 25%
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