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Will Russian troops face an encirclement threat in the Kursk region by November 30, 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Verified news sources and official statements from Russian authorities
Story
Russia Orders Evacuation of Rylsk and Khomutovsky Districts Near Ukraine Border
Sep 16, 2024, 12:41 PM
Russian authorities have announced a mandatory evacuation of residents from the Rylsk and Khomutovsky districts in the Kursk region, which are within a 15-kilometer zone from the Ukrainian border. Acting Governor Alexey Smirnov stated that the evacuation is necessary to ensure the safety of civilians amid a potential encirclement threat to 8,000 Russian troops in the region. The newly-created evacuation zone covers 1,100 square kilometers. The evacuation follows a cross-border incursion by Ukrainian forces, which has prompted Russia to evacuate multiple settlements in the area almost six weeks after Ukraine launched its surprise incursion.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successfully repels Ukrainian forces • 25%
Fails to repel Ukrainian forces • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Russia controls entire region • 25%
Ukraine controls entire region • 25%
Region is contested • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
