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How many settlements will be evacuated in the Kursk region by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
1-5 • 25%
6-10 • 25%
11-15 • 25%
More than 15 • 25%
Official announcements from Russian authorities or verified news sources
Story
Russia Orders Evacuation of Rylsk and Khomutovsky Districts Near Ukraine Border
Sep 16, 2024, 12:41 PM
Russian authorities have announced a mandatory evacuation of residents from the Rylsk and Khomutovsky districts in the Kursk region, which are within a 15-kilometer zone from the Ukrainian border. Acting Governor Alexey Smirnov stated that the evacuation is necessary to ensure the safety of civilians amid a potential encirclement threat to 8,000 Russian troops in the region. The newly-created evacuation zone covers 1,100 square kilometers. The evacuation follows a cross-border incursion by Ukrainian forces, which has prompted Russia to evacuate multiple settlements in the area almost six weeks after Ukraine launched its surprise incursion.
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Less than 100,000 • 25%
100,000 - 150,000 • 25%
150,001 - 200,000 • 25%
More than 200,000 • 25%
Ukraine controls all 100 settlements • 25%
Russia retakes all 100 settlements • 25%
Mixed control of settlements • 25%
Stalemate with no change in control • 25%
180,000-200,000 • 25%
200,001-220,000 • 25%
220,001-240,000 • 25%
More than 240,000 • 25%
Controlled by Ukraine • 25%
Controlled by Russia • 25%
Disputed territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Less than 50 • 25%
50 to 74 • 25%
75 to 100 • 25%
More than 100 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
50,000 to 100,000 • 25%
More than 100,000 • 25%
None • 25%
Ukrainian forces control more than 100 settlements • 25%
Ukrainian forces control between 50 and 100 settlements • 25%
Ukrainian forces control less than 50 settlements • 25%
Russian forces reclaim all settlements • 25%
80-100 • 25%
101-120 • 25%
121-140 • 25%
141 or more • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
More than 100 settlements • 25%
Between 80 and 100 settlements • 25%
Between 60 and 80 settlements • 25%
Fewer than 60 settlements • 25%
0-2 • 25%
3-5 • 25%
6-8 • 25%
9 or more • 25%
Successful evacuation to Ukraine • 25%
Successful evacuation to Russia • 25%
Partial success with some interference • 25%
Operation fails • 25%