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What will be the status of Syrian leadership by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Bashar al-Assad remains in power • 25%
New leader from Assad's party • 25%
Opposition leader takes power • 25%
Interim government • 25%
Official announcements or verified reports from international news agencies
Story
Syrians Defy Iranian Influence, Tear Down Soleimani and Nasrallah Banner
Dec 8, 2024, 05:45 AM
Syrian residents have torn down a banner featuring images of Qasem Soleimani, the late commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, outside the Iranian embassy in Damascus. This act of defiance comes amid reports of armed protesters entering Damascus and rumors of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's departure from the country. The incident symbolizes a growing discontent with Iranian influence in Syria, as evidenced by the public's reaction to the displayed images.
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New coalition government • 25%
HTS-led government • 25%
Military-led government • 25%
Other leadership structure • 25%
Complete collapse • 25%
Reduced to minor factions • 25%
Continues to hold some territories • 25%
Regains significant power • 25%
Non-sectarian government established • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
New sectarian government formed • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Successful Transition to Transitional Government • 25%
Return to Previous Government Structure • 25%
Continued Conflict and Instability • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Bashar Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad replaced by opposition leader • 25%
Assad replaced by another regime member • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Bashar al-Assad • 25%
Syrian Opposition Leader • 25%
Military Junta • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains in exile • 25%
Returns to political role in Syria • 25%
Seeks political role in another country • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad resigns • 25%
Assad is ousted • 25%
Power transition to a new government • 25%
Bashar al-Assad remains • 25%
New leader emerges • 25%
Interim government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
HTS • 25%
Interim Government • 25%
Bashar al-Assad • 25%
Other • 25%