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What will be the status of PKK-YPG influence in Syria by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significantly diminished • 25%
Moderately diminished • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Increased • 25%
Reports from international observers and major news organizations
Story
Erdoğan Vows to Crush PKK, YPG, and ISIS in Syria Amid Political Shifts
Dec 20, 2024, 11:04 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has declared that the time has come to neutralize terrorist organizations in Syria, emphasizing that this action is necessary to prevent threats from emerging south of Turkey's borders. Erdoğan specifically targeted the PKK and its affiliates, including the YPG, stating that their 'shelf life' has expired and that they are doomed to isolation with no future. He also mentioned that the heads of terrorist organizations such as ISIS and PKK-YPG will be crushed in the shortest time possible. Erdoğan's remarks come in the context of recent political shifts in Syria, following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, which has set the stage for intensified efforts against these groups.
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Defeated • 25%
Significantly weakened • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Strengthened • 25%
Lay down arms and integrate into society • 25%
Join other militant groups • 25%
Exiled from Syria • 25%
Remain active in reduced capacity • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
Strengthen opposition • 25%
Weaken opposition • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Strengthens collaboration • 25%
Reduces collaboration • 25%
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No change • 25%
YPG fully eliminated • 25%
Partial elimination • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Stable control • 25%
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Conflict escalation • 25%
Russia • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Iran • 25%
United States • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Significant reduction of PKK/YPG activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased PKK/YPG activities • 25%
