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What will be the outcome of U.S.-Israel relations concerning Gaza by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Analysis from policy institutes or major news outlets
Story
Biden, Netanyahu Hold 30-Minute Call on Iranian Missile Attack Amid U.S. Pressure Over Rafah Operations
Nov 18, 2024, 03:32 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a 30-minute call to discuss Israel's response to a recent missile attack from Iran. The attack, which Israel largely intercepted with assistance from the U.S., has heightened tensions as Netanyahu faces domestic opposition and pressure from the Biden administration regarding military operations. In a closed meeting, Netanyahu revealed that Biden warned him against entering Rafah, stating, "If you go in, you'll be alone," to which Netanyahu responded, "Then we will do it alone." This exchange reflects the ongoing strain in U.S.-Israel relations, particularly concerning military actions in Gaza and the Iranian nuclear program. Netanyahu indicated that Israel's capability to address threats from Iran would be tested in collaboration with the incoming U.S. administration.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased arms shipments • 25%
Hostage deal • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Israel fully complies • 25%
Israel partially complies • 25%
Israel does not comply • 25%
Other • 25%
Relations worsen • 33%
Relations improve • 33%
Relations remain same • 33%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement Reached • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Negotiations Stalled • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%
Conflict ends, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict ends, ceasefire does not hold • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire does not hold • 25%
Military victory for Israel • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Tensions increase • 25%
Formal diplomatic actions or sanctions • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire implemented • 25%
Partial ceasefire with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
No ceasefire, continued conflict • 25%
Increased international military intervention • 25%
Agreement reached with increased aid • 25%
Agreement reached without increased aid • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Aid restrictions imposed • 25%