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What will be the status of Iran's nuclear program as reported by the IAEA by July 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Progress towards nuclear capability • 25%
Stalled or no progress • 25%
Reduction in nuclear activities • 25%
Complete cessation of nuclear activities • 25%
Reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Story
Netanyahu Shifts Focus to Iran's Nuclear Threat Post-Lebanon Ceasefire
Nov 26, 2024, 06:23 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the ceasefire deal with Lebanon will allow Israel to shift its focus to the Iranian threat. Netanyahu emphasized that the ceasefire provides Israel with the operational freedom to address this issue, though he did not elaborate on specific plans. He also stated that the duration of the Lebanon truce would depend on developments, and if Hezbollah breaks the deal, Israel will respond with military action. Netanyahu reiterated his commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb, stating that this shift in focus is part of a broader strategy to change the face of the Middle East.
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Progress halted • 25%
Progress slowed • 25%
Progress unchanged • 25%
Progress accelerated • 25%
Program halted as per agreement • 25%
Minor breaches reported • 25%
Major breaches reported • 25%
Program resumed to previous levels • 25%
Program significantly damaged or destroyed • 25%
Program remains operational but limited • 25%
Program remains fully operational • 25%
Program expanded • 25%
Operational • 25%
Dismantled • 25%
Under negotiation • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Significant reduction in capability • 25%
Slight reduction in capability • 25%
No change in capability • 25%
Increased capability • 25%
Iran complies with JCPOA limits • 25%
Iran expands nuclear program • 25%
New international agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Compliant • 25%
Non-compliant • 25%
Partially compliant • 25%
Review postponed • 25%
Increase in enrichment • 25%
Decrease in enrichment • 25%
No change in enrichment • 25%
Other significant finding • 25%
Advanced • 25%
Stalled • 25%
Reduced • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Improved cooperation • 25%
Same level of cooperation • 25%
Deteriorated cooperation • 25%
Complete breakdown in cooperation • 25%
Full compliance • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Non-compliance • 25%
Withdrawal from agreements • 25%
Compliance with monitoring • 25%
Enrichment levels • 25%
Nuclear material storage • 25%
Other issues • 25%
Increased enrichment levels • 25%
Decreased enrichment levels • 25%
Stable enrichment levels • 25%
New violations discovered • 25%