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What will be the state of Israel-Lebanon relations by mid-2025 following the Batroun raid?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
Diplomatic crisis • 25%
Official statements from Israeli and Lebanese governments, news reports
Story
Israeli Commandos Reportedly Capture Hezbollah's Amhaz in Batroun Raid with 25 Soldiers
Nov 2, 2024, 11:30 AM
Israeli naval commandos reportedly conducted a raid in Batroun, northern Lebanon, early Saturday morning, capturing a Lebanese individual reported to be Hezbollah official and sea captain Imad Amhaz. The operation allegedly involved over 25 soldiers, including marines and divers, who arrived via speedboats and raided a chalet near the beach. The commandos swiftly took Amhaz into custody and departed. Some reports indicate that the raid was coordinated with the German navy, part of the UNIFIL mission. Batroun is located south of Tripoli and about 40 kilometers north of Beirut. CCTV footage purportedly captures the Israeli special marine force during the operation.
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Peaceful relations • 25%
Tense but stable relations • 25%
Escalating tensions • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Continued tensions without escalation • 25%
Escalation into military conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel withdraws troops • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased stability • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Significant territorial changes • 25%
Relations worsen significantly • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Complete elimination of Hezbollah threat • 25%
Partial reduction of Hezbollah threat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Hezbollah regains strength • 25%