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Outcome of Israel's Security Strategy in Lebanon by Mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased stability • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international observers, UN announcements, major news outlets
Story
New Israeli Defense Minister Claims Victory Over Hezbollah and Eliminates Hassan Nasrallah Amid Missile Attacks
Nov 10, 2024, 04:26 PM
Israel's new Defense Minister, Israel Katz, declared that the country has defeated Hezbollah, emphasizing the need to capitalize on this victory to alter the security situation in Lebanon. Katz stated that Hamas has also been structurally defeated, framing these developments as significant achievements for Israel. He highlighted the elimination of Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, as a key milestone in this context. However, skepticism surrounds these claims, particularly as Hezbollah launched missile attacks on Israel shortly after Katz's announcement, raising questions about the veracity of the victory narrative. Senior Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) officers noted that the IDF has dismantled Hezbollah's capacity for ground assaults into Israel, which is essential for facilitating the return of displaced civilians in northern Israel.
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Complete elimination of Hezbollah threat • 25%
Partial reduction of Hezbollah threat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Hezbollah regains strength • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah's activities • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Escalation to full-scale conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Hezbollah weakens • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains strength • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Significant territorial changes • 25%
Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
Israel gains territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial change • 25%
Ceasefire without territorial change • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued conflict without resolution • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful in neutralizing Hezbollah threat • 25%
Limited success with ongoing threats • 25%
No significant impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Hezbollah victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Israel victory • 33%
Hezbollah victory • 33%
Stalemate/No clear victor • 33%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Resolution through diplomatic means • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Conflict continues with no resolution • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Israeli withdrawal without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Escalation to wider regional conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant IDF victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%