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Outcome of Israeli operations in southern Lebanon by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete elimination of Hezbollah threat • 25%
Partial reduction of Hezbollah threat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Hezbollah regains strength • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli Defense Ministry or credible international news agencies
Story
Israel's Gallant Vows to Eliminate Hezbollah Threat in Southern Lebanon, Nasrallah Eliminated
Oct 4, 2024, 10:57 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has announced that Israel's military operations in southern Lebanon will continue until Hezbollah's threat is completely eliminated. He stated that Hezbollah is receiving severe blows and that Israel has more surprises in store for the militant group. Gallant confirmed the elimination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and emphasized that the operations will persist until all means of war are cleared. Gallant communicated these plans to commanders of the 36th Field Division. Israeli helicopters have been transporting wounded soldiers to a hospital in Haifa.
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Successful in neutralizing Hezbollah threat • 25%
Limited success with ongoing threats • 25%
No significant impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Hezbollah victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains strength • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete withdrawal of IDF • 25%
Ongoing operations without major change • 25%
Escalation to full-scale conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence with reduced activity • 25%
Escalation of operations • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant IDF victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah presence • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Hezbollah regains strength • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased stability • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah's activities • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Escalation to full-scale conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah maintains current strength • 25%
IDF withdraws without major impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah launches successful retaliation • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Other • 25%