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What will be the result of Ukraine's warning to Belarus by October 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Belarus complies and withdraws • 25%
Belarus ignores warning • 25%
Belarus escalates military presence • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations occur • 25%
Verified reports from international news agencies and official statements from Ukrainian and Belarusian governments
Story
Ukraine Warns Belarus Over 1,100 Troops and Wagner Buildup at Border
Aug 25, 2024, 06:31 PM
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has issued a warning to Belarus over the concentration of troops and military equipment near Ukraine's northern border. According to Ukrainian intelligence, about 1,100 Belarusian armed forces, including special operations units and Wagner Group mercenaries, are amassing under the guise of military exercises in the Gomel region, up to 50 kilometers from the border. The buildup includes tanks, artillery, air defense systems, and engineering equipment. Ukraine demands the immediate withdrawal of these forces, cautioning Belarus against making 'tragic mistakes' under Moscow's influence. Kyiv emphasizes its right to self-defense and threatens potential retaliation if the border is violated.
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Belarus withdraws troops • 25%
Belarus ignores the warning • 25%
Increased tensions but no military action • 25%
Other • 25%
Belarus escalates conflict • 25%
Ukraine apologizes • 25%
International mediation • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Increase military presence further • 25%
Engage in diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
No further actions • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine pursues nuclear arms • 25%
Both occur • 25%
Neither occur • 25%
Russia attacks Kyiv non-nuclearly • 25%
Russia does not attack Kyiv • 25%
Russia attacks another Ukrainian city • 25%
Other • 25%
Direct military conflict • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Continued standoff without escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military presence at the border • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Appeal to international organizations • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased airstrikes in Ukraine • 25%
Cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%