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What will be the resolution of the Iran nuclear deal negotiations by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
New deal agreed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Talks collapsed • 25%
Temporary agreement • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or reports in major news outlets
Story
Biden's Iran Envoy Robert Malley Sidelined Amid FBI Investigation Over Phishing Link, Classified Material
Sep 22, 2024, 03:46 PM
Robert Malley, President Biden's Iran envoy, has been sidelined from his position amid an FBI investigation into his conduct. Malley is accused of being influenced by an Iranian influence campaign and compromising his personal email account by clicking on a phishing link. This led to the discovery that he potentially moved classified material to a personal account. His approach in the Iran nuclear talks raised concerns among his 10-person negotiating team, who believed he was revealing too much information too soon. Enrique Mora, a Spanish negotiator, noted that the U.S. appeared desperate to secure a deal, allowing Iran to prolong negotiations. The Wall Street Journal reported these developments.
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Agreement reached • 25%
Talks stall • 25%
Talks fail • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased inspections agreed • 25%
Sanctions reinstated • 25%
No change in current status • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations continue without agreement • 25%
Talks break down • 25%
Other • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resolved through diplomacy • 25%
Resolved through sanctions • 25%
Resolved through military intervention • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks stalled • 25%
Talks failed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resolution leads to increased tension • 25%
Resolution leads to diplomatic talks • 25%
Resolution results in no change • 25%
Resolution leads to Iran complying • 25%
Iran agrees to new restrictions • 25%
Iran refuses further restrictions • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Return to JCPoA • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Continued escalation • 25%
Military intervention • 25%