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Market
What will be the reaction of international markets to U.S.-China relations by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant positive impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Minor impact • 25%
No discernible impact • 25%
Financial market reports from Bloomberg, Reuters, or Wall Street Journal
Story
Trump's Hawkish Cabinet Nominates Rubio for Secretary of State Amid China's Crackdown
Nov 18, 2024, 07:03 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Senator Marco Rubio for the position of Secretary of State, a choice that has been welcomed by Uyghur and Tibetan activists due to Rubio's outspoken criticism of China's crackdown in Xinjiang. Rubio's nomination, along with that of Mike Waltz, indicates a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy towards a more confrontational stance with China. Analysts suggest that Trump's cabinet, characterized by its hawkish views, could face a more resilient China, potentially leading to tensions in international relations and affecting global markets.
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Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
New trade deal reached • 25%
Trade negotiations stall • 25%
Trade war escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Severe trade conflict • 25%
Improvement • 33%
Deterioration • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant event • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Increased tariffs without agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%