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Market
What will be the public opinion on Sarkozy's conviction by mid-2025?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority support conviction • 25%
Majority oppose conviction • 25%
Opinion evenly split • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Reputable French public opinion survey, e.g., IFOP or Ipsos
Story
France's Highest Court Upholds Sarkozy's Corruption Conviction; Ex-President to Wear Electronic Bracelet
Dec 18, 2024, 04:10 PM
France's highest court, the Court of Cassation, has definitively upheld former President Nicolas Sarkozy's conviction for corruption and influence peddling in the wiretapping case, known as the 'Affaire des écoutes'. Sarkozy has been sentenced to three years in prison, with two years suspended, and must wear an electronic bracelet for one year instead of serving time in prison. This marks the first time a former French president has been sentenced to such a penalty. Sarkozy has announced plans to appeal the decision to the European Court of Human Rights.
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Majority indifferent • 25%
Majority oppose sentencing • 25%
Majority support sentencing • 25%
No clear majority opinion • 25%
Opinion Remains Divided • 25%
Majority Support Conviction • 25%
Majority Oppose Conviction • 25%
No Clear Majority • 25%
More opposed • 25%
Other • 25%
More supportive • 25%
No change • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Majority satisfied • 25%
Majority dissatisfied • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Predominantly critical • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Predominantly supportive • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Mostly Supportive • 25%
Divided • 25%
Mostly Opposed • 25%
Conviction overturned • 25%
Conviction upheld • 25%
Sentence reduced • 25%
Appeal dismissed • 25%
Party Splits • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Improved Performance • 25%
Declined Performance • 25%
Other • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Fine only • 25%
Suspended sentence • 25%
Other • 25%
Prison sentence • 25%
Convicted but given a suspended sentence • 25%
Mistrial declared • 25%
Convicted and sentenced to prison • 25%
Acquitted of all charges • 25%