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What will be the primary reason for the next significant conflict between Israel and Hezbollah by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Territorial Disputes • 25%
Political Disagreements • 25%
Religious Tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and statements from Israeli and Hezbollah officials
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Israel and Hezbollah Exchange Fire, Seek to Avoid Escalation
Aug 25, 2024, 02:37 PM
On Sunday, a significant exchange of fire occurred between Israel and Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon, raising concerns among UN officials. The United Nations has called for all parties to cease fire and avoid further escalation. Diplomatic sources reported that Israel and Hezbollah exchanged messages through intermediaries, indicating that neither side wishes to escalate the situation further. This exchange of fire is noted as one of the largest between the two adversaries in the past ten months.
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Territorial disputes • 25%
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Political disagreements • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Israeli airstrike • 25%
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Retaliation for Israeli actions • 25%
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Influence from external parties • 25%
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Airstrike • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
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Israeli Victory • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire violation • 25%
Rocket attacks • 25%
Border infiltration • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Israeli airstrike in Lebanon • 25%
Hezbollah rocket attack • 25%
Ground skirmish • 25%
No significant military action • 25%