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What will be the primary reason for the end of Hezbollah's attacks on northern Israel by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Military defeat by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Internal political changes in Lebanon • 25%
Continued attacks • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and official statements from Israeli and Lebanese authorities.
Story
Netanyahu Expands War Goals to Include Safe Return of 68,500 Northern Residents Amid Hezbollah Attacks
Sep 17, 2024, 04:30 AM
The Israeli Security Cabinet has updated its war objectives to include the safe return of residents to northern Israel. This decision comes amid ongoing attacks by Iran-backed Hezbollah from Lebanon, which have displaced approximately 68,500 people. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that halting Hezbollah's attacks and ensuring the safe return of residents are now formal war goals. The expansion of these objectives signals a potential escalation of the conflict, with Israel preparing for a wider military operation in Lebanon, and a full-scale war is almost inevitable.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Military strategic shift • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Retaliation for Israeli actions • 25%
Political reasons • 25%
Influence from external parties • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Mutual agreement • 25%
Pressure from neighboring countries • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Diplomatic pressure • 25%
Military stalemate • 25%
Humanitarian concerns • 25%
Economic considerations • 25%
Military strategy • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
International support • 25%
Public support • 25%
Significant civilian casualties • 25%
Significant military casualties • 25%
Both civilian and military casualties • 25%
Minimal or no casualties • 25%
Successful ground invasion and significant degradation of Hezbollah • 25%
Limited ground invasion with minor impact on Hezbollah • 25%
No ground invasion but continued airstrikes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%