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What will be the outcome of U.S. warnings to tech companies about Chinese spies monitoring data by end of 2024?
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China•New Zealand•Ministry of State Security•MSS•New Zealand Parliament•Louisa Wall•FBI•Government Communications Security Bureau•GCSB•Biden•Chinese•White House
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased security measures • 25%
Public condemnation • 25%
Legal action • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official statements from U.S. tech companies or credible news sources
Story
China Identified as Source of Years-Long Cyber-Attacks on New Zealand and U.S.
Jul 18, 2024, 01:49 PM
China has been identified as the primary source of state-sponsored cyber-attacks on New Zealand and other allied countries. In 2021, China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) unit APT31 targeted New Zealand Parliament members Louisa Wall and Simon O'Connor, as well as academic Anne-Marie Brady. The FBI discovered the hacking and informed New Zealand, but the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) took two years to relay this information. Additionally, a Biden administration official revealed that Chinese hackers maintained persistent access to U.S. and allied systems for multiple years. The White House has issued warnings to major technology companies about Chinese spies monitoring data through submarine cables, with suspicions raised about Chinese companies disabling the location of their repair ships.
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Similar markets
Increased Cybersecurity Measures • 25%
International Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Conclusive evidence found • 25%
Inconclusive evidence • 25%
No evidence found • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Resolution through diplomatic talks • 25%
Escalation of sanctions • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New cybersecurity agreement • 25%
Increased cyber sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Escalation of cyber conflict • 25%
Confirmed Chinese state involvement • 25%
Inconclusive evidence • 25%
Attributed to non-state actors • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Security clearance granted • 25%
Security clearance denied • 25%
Ongoing review • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
China found responsible • 25%
Another nation found responsible • 25%
Insufficient evidence • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Sanctions remain unchanged • 25%
Sanctions are lifted • 25%
Sanctions are increased • 25%
Sanctions are modified (but not lifted or increased) • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks ongoing • 25%
Talks stalled • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
Cyber countermeasures • 25%
No significant response • 25%