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Market
Will China officially respond to allegations of state-sponsored cyber-attacks by end of 2024?
3
China•New Zealand•Ministry of State Security•MSS•New Zealand Parliament•Louisa Wall•FBI•Government Communications Security Bureau•GCSB•Biden•Chinese•White House
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Chinese government or Ministry of State Security (MSS) reported in credible news outlets
Story
China Identified as Source of Years-Long Cyber-Attacks on New Zealand and U.S.
Jul 18, 2024, 01:49 PM
China has been identified as the primary source of state-sponsored cyber-attacks on New Zealand and other allied countries. In 2021, China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) unit APT31 targeted New Zealand Parliament members Louisa Wall and Simon O'Connor, as well as academic Anne-Marie Brady. The FBI discovered the hacking and informed New Zealand, but the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) took two years to relay this information. Additionally, a Biden administration official revealed that Chinese hackers maintained persistent access to U.S. and allied systems for multiple years. The White House has issued warnings to major technology companies about Chinese spies monitoring data through submarine cables, with suspicions raised about Chinese companies disabling the location of their repair ships.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Deny involvement • 25%
Acknowledge involvement • 25%
Propose diplomatic talks • 25%
No official response • 25%
Denial of involvement • 25%
Counter-accusations against U.S. • 25%
Proposal for joint cybersecurity talks • 25%
No official response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Denial and counter-accusations • 25%
Proposal for diplomatic talks • 25%
Retaliatory measures • 25%
No official response • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
Cyber countermeasures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Denial of allegations • 25%
Admission of some involvement • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other • 25%