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What will be the outcome of Ukraine's draft age policy decision by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Draft age lowered to 18 • 25%
Draft age stays at 25 • 25%
Draft age lowered but not to 18 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcement from the Ukrainian government or verified reports in major news outlets
Story
Biden Administration Urges Ukraine to Lower Draft Age to 18 for 3.7 Million Potential Recruits
Nov 27, 2024, 05:00 PM
The Biden administration is urging Ukraine to lower the draft age for military service from 25 to 18 years old to bolster its ranks amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. This recommendation comes as Ukraine faces challenges in meeting its manpower needs, with reports indicating that the country could potentially mobilize another 3.7 million individuals. A senior U.S. official cited insufficient mobilization and training for the war with Russia as reasons for this change. The push to lower the age limit is part of a broader strategy to slow the pace of the Russian military advance and seize the initiative, especially in light of potential changes in U.S. policy under a new administration.
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Similar markets
Lower draft age to 18 • 25%
Maintain current draft age • 25%
Increase draft age • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
18 years • 25%
19-20 years • 25%
21-25 years • 25%
26 years or older • 25%
Draft age lowered to 18 • 25%
Draft age remains at 25 • 25%
Draft age changed to between 19-24 • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Majority support lowering age • 25%
Majority oppose lowering age • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased military enrollment • 25%
Public backlash • 25%
Policy revision • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Age lowered to 18 • 25%
Age remains at 25 • 25%
Age raised above 25 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Conscription age lowered • 25%
Conscription age unchanged • 25%
Conscription age increased • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Increase age limit • 25%
Decrease age limit • 25%
Introduce exemptions • 25%
No change • 25%
