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What will be the primary reason for Ukrainian military desertions reported by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Low morale • 25%
Economic hardship • 25%
Political opposition • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Reports from Ukrainian government or credible news sources
Story
Biden Pressures Ukraine to Lower Military Draft Age to 18, Amid $300B Aid and 100,000+ Desertions
Dec 4, 2024, 04:51 PM
The Biden administration is reportedly pressuring Ukraine to lower its military conscription age to 18, amidst ongoing concerns regarding the conflict with Russia. This push comes as the U.S. has provided substantial financial support to Ukraine, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 in April, but the move faced backlash and did not yield the desired results. Current discussions suggest that American voices are advocating for an even younger draft age, despite opposition from Ukrainians who do not support the idea of an 18-year-old draft. Additionally, there are reports indicating that over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted the military, raising questions about the sustainability of recruitment efforts.
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Low morale • 25%
Poor conditions • 25%
Lack of support • 25%
Fear of injury or death • 25%
Financial aid • 25%
Military training support • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Financial incentives • 25%
Political beliefs • 25%
Military experience • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military enrollment • 25%
Public backlash • 25%
Policy revision • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Personnel shortage resolved • 25%
Personnel shortage remains the same • 25%
Personnel shortage worsens • 25%
Personnel shortage leads to major military setbacks • 25%
Dissatisfaction with conditions • 25%
Fear of combat • 25%
Political defection • 25%
Other motives • 25%
Abandonment by commanders • 25%
Lack of supplies • 25%
Fear of Ukrainian forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Refugees fleeing the country • 25%
Low birth rates • 25%
War casualties • 25%
Other • 25%
