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What will be the outcome of the Iran-Israel conflict by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Peace Treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran victory • 25%
Israel victory • 25%
Stalemate/ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of Iran and Israel or credible news organizations like Reuters or BBC
Story
Iran Attacks Israel with Missiles, Biden-Harris Mobilize Forces Amid Escalating Tensions
Oct 1, 2024, 05:21 PM
Iran has launched a direct attack on Israel, with missiles landing and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Biden-Harris administration has mobilized forces to help defend Israel. Critics argue that the administration's previous policies towards Iran and Israel have contributed to the current situation. The attack has sparked concerns of a wider regional conflict, with some commentators suggesting that the administration's actions have emboldened Iran.
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No escalation occurs • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased regional tensions • 25%
De-escalation of conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New peace negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Mediation by third party • 25%
Resolution through UN intervention • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military engagements • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Major conflict escalation • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful retaliation • 25%
Unsuccessful retaliation • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran Victory • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Israel attacks Iran • 25%
US intervenes • 25%
No military conflict • 25%
Successful strikes with no escalation • 25%
Strikes lead to regional escalation • 25%
Strikes are called off • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued Stalemate • 25%
Resolution and Peace Talks • 25%