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What will be the outcome of U.S. involvement in the Israel-Gaza conflict by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased arms shipments • 25%
Hostage deal • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or credible news sources such as CNN, BBC, or Reuters
Story
Harris Reaffirms U.S. Policy on Israel, Stresses Hostage Deal Amid October 7 Massacre
Aug 30, 2024, 01:34 AM
Vice President Kamala Harris has reiterated her unwavering commitment to Israel's defense, stating that there will be no change in U.S. policy regarding arms shipments to Israel. In a recent interview with CNN's Dana Bash, Harris emphasized Israel's right to self-defense and highlighted the importance of securing a deal for the release of hostages and a ceasefire. Harris's stance aligns closely with President Biden's current policy on the Israel-Gaza conflict, indicating no shift in approach. Despite acknowledging the high number of Palestinian casualties, Harris maintains that the U.S. will continue its support for Israel's security. She referenced the October 7 massacre, where 1,200 people were killed, as a context for her stance.
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Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Israel fully complies • 25%
Israel partially complies • 25%
Israel does not comply • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Conflict ends, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict ends, ceasefire does not hold • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire does not hold • 25%
Hamas victory • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Direct negotiation • 25%
Mediation • 25%
Military support • 25%
No significant involvement • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict with no agreement • 25%
Major escalation of conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful interception of Iranian missiles • 25%
Partial interception with some damage • 25%
Failure to intercept • 25%
No missile attacks occurred • 25%
IDF victory • 25%
Hamas retains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Continued airstrikes with increasing casualties • 25%
Decreased airstrikes with fewer casualties • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Continued conflict with no resolution • 25%
Hostage deal without ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%