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What will be the outcome of the ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Gaza by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Continued airstrikes with increasing casualties • 25%
Decreased airstrikes with fewer casualties • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, major news outlets
Story
Israel Returns Bodies of 84 Palestinians to Gaza Amid Airstrikes Killing 18 More
Aug 5, 2024, 02:21 PM
Israel has returned the bodies of 84 Palestinians to Gaza, many of whom were unidentified and decomposed. The bodies were buried in a mass grave in Khan Younis. This marks the third batch of bodies returned to Gaza, with previous returns also involving unidentified individuals. The Palestinian Ministry of Health reported that Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 18 more people. The Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor has documented over 140 mass graves containing thousands of civilians killed by Israel in the past 10 months of conflict in Gaza. The bodies were handed over via the Kerem Shalom crossing.
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Increase in international aid to Gaza • 25%
Further military escalation • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful • 33%
Unsuccessful • 33%
Ongoing • 34%
Hamas victory • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Elimination of Islamic Jihad Commander • 25%
Elimination of Hamas Commander • 25%
Civilian Casualties • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
IDF victory • 25%
Hamas retains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Israeli gains • 25%
Significant Hamas gains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Less than 50 • 25%
50-100 • 25%
101-200 • 25%
More than 200 • 25%
Hamas leadership eliminated • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued conflict with no resolution • 25%
Hostage deal without ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other • 25%
Conflict ends, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict ends, ceasefire does not hold • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire does not hold • 25%