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What will be the outcome of the U.S. involvement in the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal negotiations by October 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful mediation • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. government or credible news sources like The New York Times or The Washington Post.
Story
Israel Submits Updated Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Proposal to U.S.
Jul 27, 2024, 02:01 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that Israel will submit a new ceasefire proposal to Hamas following a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden. The updated proposal, which includes a Gaza hostage deal, was delivered to the United States on Saturday. This proposal will be discussed in a meeting with Qatar and Egypt in Rome, involving Mossad. The information was confirmed by an Israeli senior official and two other sources with knowledge of the issue.
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Similar markets
Successful Hostage Release • 25%
Failed Negotiations • 25%
Ongoing Negotiations • 25%
Negotiations Abandoned • 25%
Accepted by both parties • 25%
Rejected by both parties • 25%
Accepted by Israel only • 25%
Accepted by Hamas only • 25%
Full release of hostages • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Hostage deal reached with six-week withdrawal • 25%
Hostage deal reached without withdrawal • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire and exchange occur • 25%
Ceasefire occurs, no exchange • 25%
Exchange occurs, no ceasefire • 25%
Neither occur • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement with Continued Negotiations • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other • 25%
Deal reached with all terms met • 25%
Partial deal reached • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal negotiations ongoing • 25%
Successful deal with all hostages released • 25%
Partial deal with some hostages released • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release agreement reached • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release agreements reached • 25%
No agreements reached • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Release of all 33 living hostages • 25%
Release of some hostages • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%