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What will be the outcome of Turkey's mediation between Sudan and UAE by December 31, 2025?
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Tayyip Erdogan•Turkey•Sudan•United Arab Emirates•UAE•Sudanese Sovereignty Council•Erdogan•Ankara Process•Somalia•Ethiopia•Sudanese•Rapid Support Forces•RSF
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
Unsuccessful, no agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement with ongoing conflict • 25%
Talks abandoned • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of Sudan, UAE, or Turkey, or credible international news agencies
Story
Turkey Steps in to Mediate Sudan-UAE Conflict Amidst Humanitarian Crisis
Dec 13, 2024, 11:07 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed Turkey's readiness to mediate the ongoing tensions between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). During a phone call with Sudanese Sovereignty Council President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Erdogan emphasized Turkey's commitment to facilitating peace and stability in Sudan, protecting its territorial integrity and sovereignty, and ensuring the country does not become a field for outside interventions. This mediation offer follows Turkey's successful brokering of the Ankara Process, which led to an agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia, seen as a significant contribution to regional peace. The Sudanese government has accused the UAE of providing weapons to its rival paramilitary force, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), exacerbating the 17-month war in Sudan, a claim the UAE has denied. The conflict has led to a humanitarian crisis, with over 13 million people displaced and more than 20,000 reported deaths.
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Partial agreement with ongoing negotiations • 25%
Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No longer involved • 25%
Mediation role shared with other countries • 25%
Steps back from mediation • 25%
Continues as primary mediator • 25%
No change • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
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Deterioration • 25%
Economic cooperation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Diplomatic initiative • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
Partial troop deployment • 25%
Agreement breakdown • 25%
No troop deployment • 25%
Successful troop deployment • 25%