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What will be the outcome of Trump's dealings with Ukraine by Q3 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Deal reached • 25%
No deal, increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant developments • 25%
Official diplomatic agreements or actions involving Ukraine
Story
President-Elect Trump to Launch Mass Deportations, Pardon January 6 Rioters, as World Reacts to Second Term
Nov 10, 2024, 04:12 PM
President-Elect Donald Trump plans to initiate mass deportations of millions of undocumented migrants on his first day in office, with migrants unlikely to find refuge in neighboring Canada. He also intends to pardon January 6 rioters and seek the dismissal of his own criminal cases. The world is preparing for his second term, facing challenges such as Social Security reform, normalizing relations in the Middle East, and addressing Ukraine's hopes by appealing to his dealmaking instincts.
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Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire declared • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No progress made • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Successful negotiation and conflict resolution • 25%
Increased military aid without resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Formal peace plan proposed • 25%
Military support withdrawal • 25%
Continued support without changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
NATO membership pursued • 25%
Territory ceded • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Peace Treaty • 25%
No Resolution • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Increased U.S. support to Ukraine • 25%
Decreased U.S. support to Ukraine • 25%
No change in U.S. support to Ukraine • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ceasefire with territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Ceasefire without territorial concessions • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Plan fully implemented • 25%
Plan partially implemented • 25%
Plan rejected • 25%
Plan abandoned • 25%
Call confirmed, no impact • 25%
Call confirmed, leads to de-escalation • 25%
Call confirmed, leads to escalation • 25%
Call not confirmed • 25%