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What will be the outcome of Trump's back-channel diplomacy with Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from involved governments or credible news sources
Story
Trump May Pursue Back-Channel Diplomacy to End Ukraine War, Financial Times Reports, Risking Security Guarantees
Dec 28, 2024, 06:14 PM
The Financial Times reports that Donald Trump, as the incoming U.S. president, may pursue back-channel diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that Trump's business-oriented approach and desire to avoid military conflicts could lead to the U.S. facilitating significant agreements with Russia. However, this strategy raises concerns about Ukraine potentially being pressured into peace negotiations without adequate security guarantees. Experts warn that such a move could compromise Ukraine's sovereignty and security, particularly in light of ongoing aggressive actions from Russia.
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No progress • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Preliminary talks only • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Talks held but no agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks canceled • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued negotiations • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Ceasefire declared • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Partial acceptance • 25%
No official response • 25%
Rejection • 25%
Full acceptance • 25%
Significant progress towards peace • 25%
Meeting does not occur • 25%
No agreements reached • 25%
Minor agreements reached • 25%
Successful ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Meeting does not occur • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Talks Not Held • 25%