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What will be the outcome of the U.S.-Israel understanding on Iran before the Israeli elections in 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Full implementation with no attacks • 25%
Partial implementation with minor skirmishes • 25%
No implementation with major conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. or Israeli governments or credible news reports
Story
US and Israel Reach Understanding on Iran's Oil and Nuclear Sites, Offering Compensation Package to Netanyahu Before Elections
Oct 22, 2024, 03:21 PM
Recent reports indicate that the United States and Israel have reached a quiet understanding regarding Iran. Security sources from both nations revealed that this agreement involves the U.S. promising to reward Israel for refraining from attacking Iran's oil and nuclear infrastructure. This arrangement aims to mitigate the risk of an all-out war prior to the upcoming elections. High-level sources have confirmed that the U.S. has agreed to a new compensation package for Israel, which includes defense incentives for Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, there are ongoing calls within Israel to end military engagements, which have reportedly been vetoed by the far-right faction of the ruling coalition.
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Joint military action • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Continued diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
Increased Military Cooperation • 25%
New Sanctions on Iran • 25%
Diplomatic Engagement with Iran • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations break down • 25%
Joint Military Action • 25%
U.S. Provides Support Only • 25%
Israel Acts Unilaterally • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Increased military aid to Israel • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Agreement on military action • 25%
Agreement on diplomatic measures • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
De-escalation and talks • 25%
Continued military skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Joint Military Operation • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful international sanctions on Iran • 25%
Increased military tensions with Iran • 25%
New peace negotiations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful strike with Arab support • 25%
Unsuccessful strike • 25%
No strike occurs • 25%
Strike occurs but without Arab support • 25%