Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of the negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding hostages by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Release of all 33 living hostages • 25%
Release of some hostages • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or Hamas, confirmed by major news outlets
Story
Hamas Admits to Executing Israeli Hostage as 'Revenge', IDF Responds
Aug 15, 2024, 12:42 PM
Hamas has admitted to executing an Israeli hostage, releasing a photo purportedly showing the deceased individual, claimed to be killed as 'revenge.' The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responded, stating that the image is of a hostage whose body was recovered during a joint IDF and ISA operation in November. The family of the deceased has been notified. Israel is reportedly demanding the release of 33 living hostages in a proposed deal with Hamas. Previously, Hamas attempted to alter the proposal to include the release of hostages 'alive or dead.' The identity of the individual in the photo remains unconfirmed.
View original story
Similar markets
Hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostages executed • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Hostage deal reached with six-week withdrawal • 25%
Hostage deal reached without withdrawal • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Other • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages killed • 25%
Full release of hostages • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Successful deal with all hostages released • 25%
Partial deal with some hostages released • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement with Continued Negotiations • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
All released • 25%
Some released • 25%
None released • 25%
Status unknown • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
Hostages released, no ceasefire • 25%
Hostages released, ceasefire agreed • 25%
No hostages released, ongoing conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%