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What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas hostage deal proposal by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Deal reached with all terms met • 25%
Partial deal reached • 25%
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Deal negotiations ongoing • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or Hamas, verified by major news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Israel Proposes Comprehensive Hostage Deal with Hamas, Including Ceasefire and Safe Passage for Yahya Sinwar
Sep 19, 2024, 10:57 AM
Israel has presented a new proposal to Hamas that includes the immediate release of all hostages and the safe passage of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and others out of Gaza. This comprehensive deal aims to combine all stages into a single step, potentially involving Gaza disarmament and a ceasefire. The proposal follows accusations that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously obstructed similar hostage deals. Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon has criticized Israeli officials Smotrich and Ben-Gvir for hindering the agreement, rather than Hamas. The deal also proposes the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. This comes after the collapse of a November truce, where Hamas falsely claimed that female hostages set for release were dead, offering seven bodies and three living captives instead of 10 living hostages.
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Successful deal with all hostages released • 25%
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