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Will Russia deploy over 20,000 troops to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Kursk region by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Verified reports from major news outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, BBC, and Reuters
Story
Russia Withdraws 5,000 Troops as 11,000 Ukrainian Troops Attack Kursk
Aug 17, 2024, 11:11 PM
Russia has withdrawn up to 5,000 troops from Ukraine to reinforce defenses in its Kursk region, following a significant Ukrainian military offensive. The Wall Street Journal reports that Ukraine has deployed approximately 11,000 reserve troops, including elite units, for the attack on Kursk, with 6,000 directly participating and 4,000 in support roles from the Sumy region. Western military estimates suggest that the Ukrainian forces aim to capture and hold territory in Kursk, although experts question Ukraine's ability to maintain control. The Russian government, according to the Wall Street Journal, may require over 20,000 troops to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the area. The ongoing conflict has led to the evacuation of more than 3,000 residents from the Kursk region.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successfully repels Ukrainian forces • 25%
Fails to repel Ukrainian forces • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
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Less than 10,000 • 25%
10,000 - 20,000 • 25%
20,001 - 30,000 • 25%
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