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What will be the outcome of the SEC's Ethereum ETF decision?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Approved as non-security • 33%
Approved as security • 33%
Rejected • 34%
SEC announcement or official communication
Story
SEC Considers Ethereum ETF Approval by May 31 Amid Security Classification Debate
May 15, 2024, 08:50 AM
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently considering the approval of a spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF, with a decision expected by May 31. The SEC's deliberation includes the potential classification of Ethereum as a security, a consideration not previously applied to Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts and market participants are divided on the likelihood of approval, with some predicting rejection due to the SEC's view on Ethereum's security status. Prediction markets and analysts suggest a slim chance of approval, while some experts, including Nate Geraci, argue against the SEC's potential denial, citing the approval of Ethereum futures ETFs as a precedent. The outcome of the SEC's decision, with an initial deadline of May 23 and another potential deadline in August for BlackRock, is anticipated to significantly impact the price and market dynamics of Ethereum.
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Similar markets
Both approved • 33%
VanEck approved only • 33%
Ark Invest/21Shares approved only • 33%
Neither approved • 33%
Approved • 33%
Denied • 33%
Deferred • 34%
Unanimous Approval • 20%
Majority Approval • 20%
Split Decision • 20%
Majority Rejection • 20%
Unanimous Rejection • 20%
Increase investments • 33%
Decrease investments • 33%
No change in investments • 34%
Positive • 50%
Negative • 50%
Significantly increased volume • 25%
Moderately increased volume • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased volume • 25%
Significant Positive Impact • 33%
Negligible Impact • 34%
Significant Negative Impact • 33%
Significant increase in ETH price • 33%
Moderate increase or stable ETH price • 33%
Decrease in ETH price • 33%