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Market
How will the SEC commissioners vote on the Ethereum ETF?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Unanimous Approval • 20%
Majority Approval • 20%
Split Decision • 20%
Majority Rejection • 20%
Unanimous Rejection • 20%
Official SEC records and announcements
Story
SEC to Decide on Ethereum ETF Approval by May 23rd
May 20, 2024, 07:24 PM
The SEC is set to make a crucial decision this week on the approval of spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, with Coinbase estimating a 30-40% chance of approval, contrary to market consensus of 16%. The decision deadline is Thursday, May 23rd, and the outcome could significantly impact Ethereum's price volatility. Analysts predict a potential +/-4.8% move in ETH by the end of the week. The decision involves the approval of both 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) and S-1s (registration statements). Five SEC commissioners will vote, and Gary Gensler may be the deciding vote. Prediction markets currently give a 7% chance of approval. The market anticipates a rejection, but any approval could lead to significant price increases. VanEck, Ark Invest, and 21Shares are among the firms awaiting the SEC's decision.
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Similar markets
Both approved • 33%
VanEck approved only • 33%
Ark Invest/21Shares approved only • 33%
Neither approved • 33%
Approved as non-security • 33%
Approved as security • 33%
Rejected • 34%
Approved • 33%
Denied • 33%
Deferred • 34%
Significant increase in ETH price • 33%
Moderate increase or stable ETH price • 33%
Decrease in ETH price • 33%
Positive • 50%
Negative • 50%
Significant Positive Impact • 33%
Negligible Impact • 34%
Significant Negative Impact • 33%