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Market
How will the market react to the SEC's decision on Ethereum ETF within the week following the decision?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant increase in ETH price • 33%
Moderate increase or stable ETH price • 33%
Decrease in ETH price • 33%
Market analysis and news reports
Story
SEC to Decide on First Spot Ethereum ETF Approval by May 23rd, ETH Trading at $3,400
May 20, 2024, 07:49 PM
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make a decision on the approval of the first spot Ethereum (ETH) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) by May 23, 2024, with another deadline on May 24th. Coinbase estimates a 30-40% chance of approval, while market predictions on Polymarket place the odds at around 16%, with some analysts increasing the odds to 75%. The final decision will affect applications from VanEck and ARK Invest/21Shares. Analysts predict significant volatility in Ethereum prices leading up to the decision, with potential price movements of +/-4.8%. If approved, the ETF could lead to a substantial increase in Ethereum's price, with estimates suggesting ETH could reach $4,000 or higher. The approval is seen as a pivotal moment for the crypto market, potentially signaling a shift in U.S. crypto policy, influenced by political pressure from the Biden administration, and opening the door for other crypto ETFs. Currently, ETH is trading at $3,400.
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