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What will be the outcome of the proposed OpenAI stake auction by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Auction occurs • 25%
Auction does not occur • 25%
Auction planned but postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the California and Delaware Attorneys-General offices or reputable news sources
Story
Elon Musk Calls for California and Delaware to Auction OpenAI Stake, Citing Potential Tens of Billions in Value
Jan 9, 2025, 06:05 PM
Elon Musk has urged the attorneys-general of California and Delaware to compel OpenAI to auction a substantial stake in the company. This call comes as OpenAI seeks to transition into a public benefit corporation. Musk's lawyer, Marc Toberoff, emphasized the potential for tens of billions in value from the auction, representing the interests of significant artificial intelligence investors. Musk, who co-founded OpenAI, has had ongoing disagreements with the company's CEO, Sam Altman, regarding its direction and governance.
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Similar markets
Decision postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Successfully restructures into a PBC • 25%
Remains as current structure • 25%
Adopts a different structure • 25%
Remains as current structure • 25%
Successfully restructures as PBC • 25%
Restructures differently • 25%
Abandons restructuring • 25%
Microsoft divests completely • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased stake • 25%
Decreased stake • 25%
Moderate new funding secured • 25%
Significant new funding secured • 25%
Partnership terminated • 25%
No new funding secured • 25%
Transition but with financial losses • 25%
No transition completed • 25%
Successful transition with increased profitability • 25%
Transition with moderate profitability • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No public statement • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Transition delayed • 25%
OpenAI transition approved • 25%
Transition blocked • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other restructuring • 25%
Delaware Public Benefit Corporation • 25%
Traditional for-profit corporation • 25%
Remains a non-profit • 25%
Partnership terminated • 25%
Successful product integration • 25%
Partnership expanded • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
No legal action taken • 25%
OpenAI found liable • 25%
OpenAI settles out of court • 25%
OpenAI cleared of wrongdoing • 25%
Ongoing • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Musk wins • 25%
OpenAI wins • 25%
