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Outcome of OpenAI's for-profit transition by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful transition with increased profitability • 25%
Transition with moderate profitability • 25%
Transition but with financial losses • 25%
No transition completed • 25%
Official announcements from OpenAI or credible reports from business news outlets
Story
Microsoft, a $3T Company, and OpenAI Define AGI as $100 Billion Profit Milestone in 2023 Agreement Amid Cost Concerns
Dec 26, 2024, 04:30 PM
A recent report reveals that Microsoft and OpenAI have established a financial definition of artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is tied to generating $100 billion in profits. This agreement, made in 2023, outlines the conditions under which OpenAI can declare it has achieved AGI, effectively ending the debate over its definition. Microsoft, facing rising costs associated with OpenAI's models, is reportedly considering moving away from these models to reduce expenses and pass savings on to customers. The partnership negotiations are ongoing, with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman seeking to transition the company to a for-profit structure. This development suggests a shift in the relationship between the two companies, as they navigate the complexities of AI profitability and investment returns.
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Mostly Positive • 25%
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