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What will be the outcome of Microsoft's equity stake in OpenAI by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased stake • 25%
Decreased stake • 25%
No change • 25%
Microsoft divests completely • 25%
Official announcements from Microsoft or OpenAI on equity stake changes
Story
Microsoft and OpenAI Revise $13B Partnership Terms, Set $100B AGI Benchmark
Dec 26, 2024, 03:35 PM
Microsoft Corp., with a valuation of $3 trillion, and OpenAI have been engaged in discussions to potentially revise their $13 billion-plus partnership terms since October. The negotiations focus on several key areas: Microsoft's equity stake in OpenAI's for-profit entity, the exclusivity of Microsoft as OpenAI's cloud provider, the usage rights of OpenAI's intellectual property, and the continuation of Microsoft's 20% revenue share from OpenAI. These talks reflect underlying tensions, particularly concerning the cloud computing deal. Microsoft has expressed concerns about the cost and speed of OpenAI's models, such as GPT-4, which are deemed too slow and expensive for enterprise needs. Additionally, the partnership has been strained by disagreements over the definition and financial benchmarks of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), with both companies setting a contractual goal of $100 billion in profits to signify AGI achievement.
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Investment remains unchanged • 25%
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Moderate new funding secured • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No decision announced • 25%
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Clause modified • 25%
Clause retained • 25%
Auction occurs • 25%
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AGI clause remains, increased collaboration in other areas • 25%
AGI clause removed, increased Microsoft investment • 25%
AGI clause removed, no additional changes • 25%
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Request denied • 25%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Successfully restructures as PBC • 25%
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Remains as current structure • 25%