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What will be the outcome of the ongoing debate and criticism regarding U.S. policy on Ukraine's strikes into Russian territory by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy becomes more restrictive • 25%
Policy becomes less restrictive • 25%
Other • 25%
Verified news reports from reputable sources, official statements, and policy changes
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U.S. Affirms Ukraine Can Strike Russia Without Permission Using Domestic Weapons, Says Matthew Miller
Oct 1, 2024, 09:20 AM
The U.S. State Department has reiterated that Ukraine does not need U.S. permission to strike deep into Russian territory using domestically produced weapons. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller clarified that Ukraine has its own weapons programs in place and can use these to retaliate against Russian targets. Despite this, there is ongoing debate and criticism regarding the U.S. policy, particularly given that Ukraine reportedly lacks the homegrown weapons necessary for such strikes. Additionally, there are discussions about the potential for the U.S. to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons for strikes after the upcoming U.S. elections. Critics have labeled the U.S. stance as a 'catastrophic policy.'
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Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy is relaxed • 25%
Policy is tightened • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military aid • 25%
Decreased military aid • 25%
No change in military aid • 25%
Withdrawal of all military aid • 25%
Prioritize peace over reclaiming Crimea • 25%
Maintain current policy supporting Ukraine's territorial claims • 25%
Increase military support to Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
Resolved • 25%
Ongoing • 25%
Escalated • 25%
Other • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy is relaxed • 25%
Policy is tightened • 25%
Policy is completely revoked • 25%
Further military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%