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What will be the outcome of the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets by October 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant damage to Hezbollah • 25%
Minimal damage to Hezbollah • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Hezbollah retaliates effectively • 25%
Verified news reports from major news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, and Al Jazeera
Story
Israel Strikes Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon After Rocket Kills 12 Children on Sunday
Jul 28, 2024, 08:33 AM
The Israeli Air Force has launched retaliatory strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon following a rocket attack on Sunday that killed 12 people, including children, on a football pitch in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The rocket, fired by Hezbollah, struck the town of Majdal Shams, resulting in the deaths of 12 individuals, many of whom were children and teenagers from the Druze community. Israel's military and foreign ministry have condemned the attack, stating that Hezbollah has 'crossed all red lines.' The Israeli government has vowed to continue its military response against Hezbollah targets, escalating tensions between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group.
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Significant Hezbollah infrastructure destroyed • 25%
Minimal damage to Hezbollah infrastructure • 25%
Civilian casualties reported • 25%
No significant outcomes reported • 25%
Minimal damage reported • 25%
Moderate damage reported • 25%
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Hezbollah leadership targeted • 25%
Significant weakening of Hezbollah • 25%
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Hezbollah retaliates with significant force • 25%
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Hezbollah's capabilities significantly reduced • 25%
Hezbollah's capabilities moderately reduced • 25%
Hezbollah's capabilities remain largely intact • 25%
Hezbollah's capabilities increased • 25%
Nasrallah confirmed dead • 25%
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Nasrallah confirmed uninjured • 25%
No confirmation • 25%
Hezbollah suffers significant losses • 25%
Hezbollah suffers moderate losses • 25%
Hezbollah suffers minimal losses • 25%
Hezbollah suffers no losses • 25%
Limited airstrikes only • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Both airstrikes and ground invasion • 25%
No significant military response • 25%
Nasrallah killed • 25%
Nasrallah injured • 25%
Nasrallah unharmed • 25%
Outcome unclear • 25%
Significant Hezbollah casualties • 25%
Minimal Hezbollah casualties • 25%
Significant infrastructure damage • 25%
Minimal infrastructure damage • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited military operations • 25%
Hezbollah disarmament • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains largely intact • 25%
Hezbollah strengthens • 25%
Inconclusive outcome • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Successful operation with minimal conflict • 25%
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Stalemate with no clear outcome • 25%