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What will be the outcome of the India-Canada diplomatic row by June 30, 2025?
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India•Sanjay Kumar Verma•Canada•Canadian•Sikh•Hardeep Singh Nijjar•Ministry of External Affairs•MEA•Indian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full restoration of diplomatic relations • 25%
Partial restoration with conditions • 25%
Continued diplomatic tensions • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Official announcements or agreements from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs or Canadian government
Story
India Withdraws Envoy Sanjay Kumar Verma from Canada Amid Diplomatic Row Over Sikh Activist's Murder
Oct 14, 2024, 04:11 PM
India has decided to withdraw its High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma and other diplomats from Canada following allegations by the Canadian government linking them to the murder of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in 2023. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) summoned Canada's Charge d'Affaires to convey that the targeting of Indian diplomats was unacceptable. In a tit-for-tat move, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, including the High Commissioner, alleging their involvement in intelligence gathering on Sikh separatists. India responded by expelling six Canadian diplomats. The diplomatic row marks a significant escalation in tensions between the two countries.
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Resolution through dialogue • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Involvement of international mediators • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased diplomatic sanctions • 25%
Continued status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Resolution through diplomatic talks • 25%
Escalation to international arbitration • 25%
Ongoing tension without resolution • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Resolution and improved relations • 25%
Continued tensions without resolution • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Full resolution and restoration of relations • 25%
Partial resolution with some restrictions • 25%
Continued diplomatic tensions • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Further diplomatic expulsions • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations normalize • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Trade sanctions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%