Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of diplomatic tensions between India and Canada by June 30, 2025?
2
India•Canada•Sanjay Kumar Verma•Sikh•Hardeep Singh Nijjar•Ministry of External Affairs•Canadian•Justin Trudeau•Stewart Wheeler
Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased diplomatic sanctions • 25%
Continued status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from both governments and major news outlets
Story
India Rejects Canada's Claim That Diplomats Are 'Persons of Interest,' Summons Envoy Over Nijjar Probe
Oct 14, 2024, 10:00 AM
India has strongly rejected Canada's allegations that its diplomats, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma, are "persons of interest" in an investigation related to the killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. In a statement, the Ministry of External Affairs described the claims as "preposterous imputations" and accused Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of making unsubstantiated charges, pursuing a political agenda centered around vote bank politics, and supporting violent extremists. India labeled the situation as "naked interference" and "hostility towards India." The government asserted that Canada has not shared any evidence regarding the case, reserved the right to take further steps, and summoned Canada's Chargé d'Affaires Stewart Wheeler to lodge a formal protest. The diplomatic row marks a significant escalation in tensions between the two countries.
View original story
Similar markets
Resolution through dialogue • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Involvement of international mediators • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Resolution and improved relations • 25%
Continued tensions without resolution • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Full restoration of diplomatic relations • 25%
Partial restoration with conditions • 25%
Continued diplomatic tensions • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Resolution through diplomatic talks • 25%
Escalation to international arbitration • 25%
Ongoing tension without resolution • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Further diplomatic expulsions • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations normalize • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Trade sanctions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic tensions increase • 25%
Severance of diplomatic ties • 25%
Relations improve significantly • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations break down completely • 25%
Full resolution and restoration of relations • 25%
Partial resolution with some restrictions • 25%
Continued diplomatic tensions • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%