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Market
What will be the outcome of the final ceasefire and hostage release agreement negotiations by January 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Approved by both parties • 25%
Rejected by Israel • 25%
Rejected by Hamas • 25%
Rejected by both parties • 25%
Official announcements from Israel, Hamas, and international mediators
Story
Qatar Presents Final Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal to Israel and Hamas Following Breakthrough Talks
Jan 13, 2025, 09:33 AM
Mediator Qatar has presented Israel and Hamas with a final draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement aimed at ending the war in Gaza. The breakthrough was achieved in Doha after midnight, following talks involving Israel's Mossad Chief, US President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, and Qatar's Prime Minister. The draft agreement has been sent to both Israel and Hamas for approval.
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All hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Agreement Approved but Not Implemented • 25%
Agreement Rejected • 25%
Agreement Approved and Implemented • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages partially released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
No agreement reached • 33%
Hostages released • 33%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostages rescued • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Israel takes military action • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
New terms negotiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Agreement on extension • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%