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Will 33 hostages be released by February 15, 2025 under the ceasefire agreement?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Israeli or international news agencies reporting on the release of hostages
Story
Israel and Hamas Receive Final Ceasefire Draft: 33 Hostages to Be Released
Jan 13, 2025, 01:16 PM
Mediator Qatar has handed Israel and Hamas a final draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement to end the war in Gaza, following a significant breakthrough in negotiations. The draft has been sent to both parties for approval after midnight talks in Doha, attended by envoys from the United States, including President-elect Donald Trump's envoy, the Israeli Mossad Chief, and the Qatari Prime Minister. The deal involves the release of 33 hostages in the first phase, including women, children, elderly, injured, and ill individuals. The ceasefire is expected to last 42 days in the initial phase. Israel and mediators from Egypt, the U.S., and Qatar have agreed on the draft and are awaiting Hamas's response. Israeli officials estimate most of the hostages are alive but acknowledge that some may be dead. The negotiations are in advanced stages, but a final agreement has not yet been reached.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
More than 33 hostages • 25%
11-20 hostages • 25%
0-10 hostages • 25%
21-33 hostages • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Rejected by Israel • 25%
Rejected by both parties • 25%
Approved by both parties • 25%
Rejected by Hamas • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Third Phase • 25%
First Phase • 25%
Second Phase • 25%
No Significant Release • 25%