Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of the FBI's internal investigation into the New Orleans attack by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
No major issues found • 25%
Procedural errors identified • 25%
Personnel changes recommended • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official FBI reports or credible news coverage
Story
FBI Agent Alethea Duncan Reassigned After Mislabeling New Orleans Terror Attack on New Year's Day
Jan 17, 2025, 06:55 PM
Alethea Duncan, the FBI Assistant Special Agent in Charge in New Orleans, has been temporarily reassigned following her initial press conference statement that the attack in the city was 'not a terrorist event.' The incident, which occurred on New Year's Day, involved Shamsud-Din Jabbar driving a truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street, killing 14 people and injuring dozens. Jabbar, who had an ISIS flag in his truck, was killed by police after he began shooting at them. Despite Duncan's initial claim, subsequent statements from the FBI, Attorney General Merrick Garland, and President Biden confirmed the attack as an act of terrorism. The FBI has not provided details on Duncan's new position but confirmed she remains with the agency.
View original story
Similar markets
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Other • 25%
Insufficient evidence • 25%
Part of larger network • 25%
Solely domestic actors identified • 25%
International terrorist group involvement • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Accomplices identified • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Lone actor confirmed • 25%
Foreign involvement • 25%
Identified and arrested all suspects • 25%
Some suspects identified • 25%
Identified but not arrested all suspects • 25%
No suspects identified • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Identified domestic group • 25%
Identified foreign group • 25%
Lone actor • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Terrorism confirmed • 25%
Terrorism not confirmed • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Terrorism-related charges • 25%
Non-terrorism violent crime charges • 25%
No charges filed • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Part of larger network • 25%
Unclear motives • 25%
Accomplices identified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Lone actor confirmed • 25%
Foreign influence confirmed • 25%
No suspects apprehended • 25%
Partial apprehension of suspects • 25%
All suspects apprehended and charged • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Domestic Terrorism • 25%
Other • 25%
Lone Wolf Attack • 25%
ISIS Connection • 25%