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What will be the outcome of the Bolivian political situation by end of 2024?
5
Evo Morales•Luis Arce•Venezuela•Hugo Chavez•Morales•Arce•Lucho Arce•Argentine•Javier Milei•Bolivia•Argentina
Resolution / Starting Odds
Luis Arce remains in power • 33%
Luis Arce steps down • 33%
Military or other intervention occurs • 33%
Official Bolivian government announcements, verified news sources
Story
Bolivia Summons Argentine Ambassador Over Luis Arce 'Self-Coup' Claims, Javier Milei Denounces
Jul 1, 2024, 03:07 PM
Bolivian political tensions have escalated following claims by former President Evo Morales that current President Luis Arce orchestrated a 'self-coup' similar to the 2002 Venezuela incident involving Hugo Chavez. Morales argues that the coup was not a genuine military takeover but rather a maneuver by Arce to consolidate power amid internal disputes and infighting with his former ally Lucho Arce. The Argentine government, led by President Javier Milei, has denounced the coup as 'fake' and 'fraudulent,' prompting Bolivia to summon the Argentine ambassador for a reprimand. The incident has strained relations between the two countries, with Bolivia rejecting Argentina's statements as 'unfriendly.'
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President Arce remains in power • 33%
General Zuñiga takes control • 33%
New elections announced • 34%
Luis Arce's government • 33%
General Juan José Zuñiga's military junta • 33%
Another faction • 33%
Morales gains more influence • 25%
Arce consolidates power • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Political reforms initiated • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
MAS party leadership change • 25%
Strengthened position • 25%
Weakened position • 25%
Forced to resign • 25%
Maintains current status • 25%
Extradited and arrested • 25%
Arrested outside Bolivia • 25%
Remains free • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Strike ends with government concession • 33%
Strike ends without concession • 33%
Strike continues • 33%
Protests lead to government concessions • 25%
Protests lead to increased government crackdown • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant impact • 25%
Protests lead to Morales' return to political prominence • 25%
Majority support Morales • 25%
Majority against Morales • 25%
Majority indifferent • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Charges Dropped • 25%
Case Ongoing • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Maduro steps down • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other • 25%