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What will be the outcome of the Arles prison hostage situation?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
All hostages released unharmed • 25%
Some hostages harmed • 25%
Inmate surrenders peacefully • 25%
Intervention forces storm the infirmary • 25%
Official announcements from French authorities or reputable news outlets
Story
Armed Inmate Takes Five Hostages in Arles Prison Infirmary; One Released
Jan 3, 2025, 12:28 PM
A hostage situation is underway at Arles prison in southern France, where a 37-year-old inmate armed with a homemade bladed weapon is holding five staff members hostage in the prison infirmary, including four medical personnel and one prison guard. The incident began around 11:15 am on Friday when the inmate, serving time for armed rape and known for severe psychiatric issues, took advantage of receiving medical care to seize the hostages. One hostage has since been released. Special intervention forces, including RAID, ERIS, and ELSP, have been deployed to the scene. The hostage-taker is reportedly demanding a transfer to another facility. The Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, stated that all means are being mobilized to address the situation.
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Other outcomes • 25%
Inmate's psychiatric condition highlighted • 25%
No significant issues found • 25%
Security lapses identified • 25%
Inmate's voluntary surrender • 25%
Successful negotiations • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Intervention by elite police units • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages partially released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Joint operation • 25%
RAID • 25%
ELSP • 25%
ERIS • 25%
File lawsuits for trauma • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Receive commendations • 25%
Undergo additional training • 25%
Negotiated Release • 25%
Military Operation • 25%
Continued Captivity • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostages rescued • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%